Impacts on Australia

Global impacts

If climate change progresses as predicted by the international climate models, the environment and economic results will likely be severe. Some scenarios include:

• Sea-level rise, with river deltas and small islands hardest hit
• Melting of glaciers that feed important rivers and irrigated food supplies
• Reduced food production in many countries
• Destruction of coral reefs due to increased water temperatures and acidification
• Extinction of species as habitats change faster than species can adapt
• Increase in the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events

The thresholds for these impacts are not clear, but serious global impacts become more likely with each increment of temperature increase. 

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Impacts in Australia

By 2030, a 1°C temperature rise, above 1990 levels, is expected. Inland areas will experience the greatest level of warming, with coastal areas slightly less affected.

To give an indication of the scale of these temperature rises, a 1°C rise would make Melbourne like Wagga Wagga in NSW, a 3°C rise like that of Sydney and a 6°C rise like that just north of Roma in Queensland.

Moreover, predictions are for decreased rainfall, increased frequency of severe weather events (floods, droughts, heat waves etc), and rising sea levels around Australia if climate change is not controlled. These impacts will have direct and indirect outcomes.

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Direct outcomes

On agriculture

Food production is projected to decline, most severely for irrigated agriculture, but because Australia is major exporter of food, internal food security should not be directly affected.

On water supplies

Water security is already a major challenge for towns and cities as well as for irrigated agriculture and the environment and the costs of providing water security will increase because decreases in rainfall typically result in a twofold to threefold decrease in stream flow.

On coastlines

The combination of sea level rises and increased magnitude of storm events will impact near-coastal land, beaches, infrastructure and natural resources through storm damage, coastline erosion and flooding. Around 80% of Australians live in ‘coastal areas’.

On settlements and infrastructure

As well as coastline damage, increased storm activity (hail, cyclones, floods etc) can dramatically impact on settlements and infrastructure that has been designed for lower scale impacts. For example, a 25% increase in wind gust speed (from 40-50 to 50-60 knots) can give a 650% increase in building damage and insurance claims.

On human health

Climate change will lead to an increase in the number of heat-related deaths from heatwaves (temperatures above 35°C). For a temperature increase of 2–3°C, temperature-related deaths among people over 65 may double. Indirectly, there may be changes in the distribution of diseases and an increase in food poisoning and water borne diseases. The impacts will be greatest on the most vulnerable (remote indigenous communities, those on lower incomes, the elderly and the sick). 

On natural ecosystems

Many natural ecosystems, in whole or in part, have limited capacity to adapt to climate change. Some of the ecosystems at high risk include coral reefs (including Great Barrier Reef), the wet tropics, the Kakadu wetlands and the Australian Alps.

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Indirect outcomes

The Garnaut Report concluded that Australia’s terms of trade will be much more adversely affected by climate change than any other developed country. Agriculture in Australia is expected to be significantly affected, but the net impact on our major trading partners in the future (China, India, Indonesia and other Asian countries) is difficult to predict.

Perhaps most critically, climate change (particularly through sea level rises, water scarcity and reduced food production) has the potential to undermine geopolitical stability. A dramatic increase in refugees resulting from rising sea levels, water scarcity and destabilised political systems is a significant threat and Australia may be required to intervene in natural, political (including conflict) and humanitarian crises.

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References and resources

Check the current status of Australia’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme at the Department of Climate Change website.

Garnaut Climate Change Review, 2008, Emissions Trading Scheme Discussion Paper – March 2008.

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