Grain and Hay Report

Loading hay onto a utility in a farmyard in South Australia

bummer ok thanks..

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

NATIONAL BACKGROUND COMMENTS: Week ending 4^th February 2010.

Please note that direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this national summary for grain and hay.

National Summary - Grain:

Freecall version of this Grain & Hay report is available on 1300 799429
World grain prices largely flat this week, but local grain markets are lower by around $5/tonne (sorghum down $15 in southern Queensland).
Currently, no-one can mount a case for higher world grain prices over 2010. But we need to keep an eye on northern hemisphere weather through April-May to see if the crops come through at average or better. We should expect grain price volatility during that period till the crop prospects are firmed up.
Locally, the first receivals of new crop sorghum have just started in southern Queensland and the continuing big rains in the north are giving confidence for a good moisture base for both pastures and crops – whether that be summer crops in the field or for winter crops which will be sown in April/May.
There is still a feedgrain deficit for 2010 in southern Qld-northern NSW, with Darling Downs wheat prices about $50 over Victorian levels and about $80 over for barley. This means Victorian barley can remain competitive into the Downs region and Victorian barley prices were about $5 lower this last week.
The lower $A to around 0.88 cents has helped keep grain prices fairly steady.
Grower selling remains quite slow, with much of this year’s east coast crop stored on farm or warehoused for later selling.
Grain stored on farm is most likely untested – that is, not formally graded as it would be on delivery to a storage or mill. Quality is highly variable in parts of Victoria this year with many grades of both wheat and barley (Barley F1 to F4). It is essential this year that dairy farmers know the specifications and grades of grain they are buying. Off-grades may seem cheap, but if they have high screenings and/or poor energy value, they will look expensive in the vat.
There is also some weather damaged grain which should be good feed value, even though it may be unsuitable for flour milling. Use your nutritionist to ensure you buy the right quality grains for your herd this year.
It is important to keep checking prices regularly and from a few sources.
Important Note: During and just after harvest, it is possible to source grain direct ex grain farms or from paddock field bins. This can save up to $20/t below our quoted prices by avoiding storage double handling and freight costs, but buyers need to have the storage and infrastructure as well as the management time to negotiate these deals directly. The time for doing this has now largely passed for this harvest.
Dairy farmers should be clear about target prices in their feed budgets for a profit in 2010. They should not just assume grain prices will hold current levels or get cheaper. No-one knows this answer, but dairy farmers do know at what level grain prices allow them to make a profit – and they should focus on action at those levels and not keep waiting to pick the bottom of the market, which will only put their business at greater risk.
Freecall version of this Grain & Hay report is available on 1300 799429.

National Summary - Hay:

Throughout many parts of the country we are seeing hay as cheap as it has been for the past four years. It is often unavoidable for many to get through the year without purchasing hay off farm and now represents an ideal time to be buying hay.
Quality is varied and those prepared to buy hay now can take their pick of the best quality hay while it is still about at the most reasonable prices.
Traditionally hay markets are quiet at this time of year. Any behind the baler trading that was going on has now been delivered. And those hay producers electing to store for autumn and winter premiums have most of their hay stacked away. It would be expected for trading activity to remain quiet for the next month, however once the calendar tells us autumn has arrived both producers and purchasers start seriously thinking about selling and purchasing hay.
Similarly to grain production throughout the country, hay production and quality has been extremely varied. High yielding cereal hay crops are testing lower than previous years when crops have been drought stressed and sugar contents higher than normal. This year more than ever it is essential to know the energy and protein levels of the hay you are purchasing.
Most professional hay producers now test their hay whether the client uses test results or not. Knowing the feed values of the fodder you are feeding can greatly reduce waste and increase production and give an assurance that the cows will maintain production in a predictable manner.
Nationally hay production is pretty much wrapped up, with only some straw to be baled behind headers in Southern Victoria. The season has been extremely mixed between and within states
Prices have not yet responded to the rain in Northern NSW and Queensland, however demand has eased steadily. Feedlots in these regions are consistent users of large volumes of hay.
Straw appears to be in good supply in most states, and now is the time when producers will be most negotiable in price, to get it off their paddocks without handling and storage and the pressing need to graze or spray stubbles. Most southern Victorian dairy farmers require straw for fibre and good buying opportunities are out there.
Vetch producers have had a reprieve this year and have been able to combine good yields with high quality hay. Of the limited amount of hay trading in southern states, vetch is one of the main movers.
Due to the nature of the season hay purchases need to be made with as much information as possible. There have been the challenges of wet weather during curing in the windrow as well as large squares on the tops of uncovered stacks incurring rain damage.
The Bega Valley is preparing for another year as an importer of fodder. Many dairy farmers have already taken steps to secure supplies as close as possible to home.
The Wimmera has enjoyed exceptional yields of vetch hay and kind curing conditions to produce high quality hay.
South Australia has been rewarded with exceptional oaten hay yields but producers were frustrated with rain during the early part of harvest. Other than the movement of contracted hay into export plants, very little trading is taking place, South Australian hay producers are happy to sit on stocks until demand increases.
South Western Australian dairy farmers are eating into their hay supplies earlier than normal. Some who have been unable to produce much on farm have been actively purchasing pasture hay close to home, to avoid freighting in cereal hay from further afield later on.
Hay baling is complete in Tasmania, but trading activity is extremely quiet. There are good stocks of pasture hay available throughout the state.

Click the region name in the table below to view Grain Commentary for each region.

4^th February 2010		Grain
		Wheat		Barley		Maize		Sorghum
Atherton Tableland	Price Range	$319	$329	$322	$332	$290	$300	$277	$287
	Change	Steady		Down $5		Steady		Down $5

Darling Downs	Price Range	$251	$261	$251	$261	$300	$310	$225-	$235
	Change	Down $2		Down $5		Steady		Down $15

North Coast NSW	Price Range	$270	$280	$258	$268	$276	$286	$232	$242
	Change	Down $2		Down $5		Steady		Down $15

Central West NSW	Price Range	$207	$217	$188	$198	$305	$315	$278	$288
	Change	Down $5		Down $10		Up $5		Down $5
		Wheat		Barley		Triticale		Oats
Bega Valley	Price Range	$244	$254	$243	$253	$255	$265
	Change	Down $5		Down $5		Down $5

Goulburn/Murray Valley	Price Range	$200	$210	$159	$179	$175	$185	$185	$195
	Change	Down $3		Down $3		Down $5		Steady

Gippsland	Price Range	$248	$258	$200	$210	$233	$243	$222	$232
	Change	Down $3		Steady		Down $2		Steady

South West Vic	Price Range	$189	$199	$162	$172	$219	$229	$170	$180
	Change	Down $3		Steady		Down $2		Steady

South East SA	Price Range	$207	$217	$168	$178	$182	$192	$135	$145
	Change	Down $4		Down $1		Up $1		Steady

Central SA	Price Range	$216	$226	$180	$190			$135	$145
	Change	Down $4		Down $1				Steady

South West WA	Price Range	$216	$226	$180	$190	$200	$210	$188	$198
	Change	Down $6		Steady		Steady		Up $5

North West Tasmania	Price Range	$265	$275	$220	$230	$265	$275	$277	$287
	Change	Up $10		Up $1		Down $2		Steady

Notes: All prices are exclusive of GST
Grain and Hay prices are a delivered price into a region.

Click the region name in the table below to view Hay Commentary for each region.

4^th February 2010		Hay
4^th February 2010		Cereal		Lucerne		Straw		Pasture
Atherton Tableland	Price Range	N/A		N/A		N/A		$205	$225
	Change							Up $10

Darling Downs	Price Range	$250	$270	$330	$360	$155	$180	N/A
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady

North Coast NSW	Price Range	$225	$245	$290	$310	$130	$160	$135	$165
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady

Central West NSW	Price Range	$240	$270	$310	$350	$130	$150	N/A
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady
Bega Valley	Price Range	$245	$275	$280	$360	$185	$205	N/A
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady

Goulburn/Murray Valley	Price Range	$135	$165	$240	$280	$95	$115	$140	$160
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady

Gippsland	Price Range	$180	$210	$260	$280	N/A		$160	$170
	Change	Steady		Steady				Steady

South West Vic	Price Range	$145	$165	$220	$230	$115	$125	$125	$135
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady

South East SA	Price Range	$145	$165	$220	$245	$125	$135	$145	$165
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady

Central SA	Price Range	$145	$165	$240	$260	$100	$120	N/A
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady

South West WA	Price Range	$145	$165	N/A		$100	$110	$165	$175
	Change	Steady				Down $5		Steady

North West Tasmania	Price Range	$145	$175	$230	$270	N/A		$125	$135
	Change	Steady		Steady				Steady

Notes: All prices are exclusive of GST.
Grain and Hay prices are a delivered price into a region.

1. Atherton Tableland – Grain Commentary

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There had been three weeks of rain before the 125 millimetre received this week.
This very hot and sticky conditions now.
Now that grazing options have been restricted by continuing rain, there may be a case to increase the use of grain temporarily.
This would be to try and ward off any temporary reduction in summer milk output, associated with the wet conditions, and less foraging by cows.
Irrigation is currently less important for feed.
With soils already wet, the rain runoff was high.
Tall irrigated summer fodder crops have been flattened.
Where fences are down and farmers don’t want areas of paddocks pugged there is some temporary stall feeding of cows in confined spaces with both fodder and grain.
Dairy cows had been producing most of their milk on irrigated feed.
This will probably continue for some time, with short length feed being used ahead of crops that have gone down under the weight of wind and water.
There is no lower grade grain available from central Queensland this year to impact on local feed grain pricing.
This gives an advantage to local sorghum and maize.
New season local sorghum and maize is each available now.
Although the rain may cause problems out loading from farm storage, as well as putting the harvest on hold for at least two weeks.
It is not main crop sorghum or maize, but small supplies of both have already been stripped.
Where the local corn is feed corn, not milling or gritting, it is staying locally.
FNQ feed corn does not work into south east Queensland at present.
But FNQ corn will be held back till winter, when corn becomes a much more preferred grain for feeding to not only dairy cattle, but also to beef cattle and sheep.
Wheat from Central Queensland is steady this week after the recent correction.
Barley and sorghum are each down $5.
Central Queensland sorghum prices are under pressure from the ideal conditions for the new crops, both sown and those now going in.
Local maize prices are weak but steady.
The wheat in Central Queensland was all of milling quality.
Unless there are supplies of weather damaged wheat from the 2008 harvest still available, dairy farmers wanting wheat for cow rations will need to pay human consumption prices.
Even if any 2008 feed wheat is identified, growers or traders holding it would try to obtain milling wheat prices for it, based on scarcity.
Growers have a high proportion of their 2009 wheat either pooled, or in warehousing and are carefully selling from warehousing from time to time, to fit their cash flow needs.
In general terms wheat and barley are well out of price reach for the tablelands dairy farmers.
The choice of energy grain is between local sorghum and local maize or a combination.
On an energy basis, maize is favoured, but other issues come into play, such as some nutritionists rating maize too high in energy for summer feeding.
It was a disappointing 2009 wheat crop, with only between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes of wheat stripped from central Queensland.
The outlook for 2010 is better, with the moisture build up from the last few weeks.

Atherton Tableland – Hay Commentary

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120mm of rain at Atherton.
Trading is consistent and prices remain steady.
The wet has now arrived at the east coast and in the short term there is the need for hay to feed cattle in containment areas as pastures dry out sufficiently to avoid pugging damage.
Weather damaged hay should be limited as not much on the ground anyway. Some pastures that were ready for cutting might now be difficult to get a mower into as some pastures have flattened.
Up until now irrigated pastures have been able to produce enough hay to keep up with the demand, however if cows are in a containment situation for any length of time, fodder may have to come from further afield.
The northern wet season rainfall is currently in decile 2-3 for the period from 1^st October 2009 to 31^st December 2009.
With higher prices for hay there is growing interest amongst consumers for large square bales which offer freight savings of up to 50% compared to rolls.
Demand is from local and coastal beef, dairy and horse markets.
The Atherton Tablelands has experienced an extremely dry winter with rainfall in the first to decile range for the three months to the end of October.
Rhodes grass hay producers have to irrigate their crops with the continued dry conditions.
Better quality Rhodes grass hay made from the varieties, Katambora and Fine Cut, are generally higher in protein.

2. Darling Downs – Grain Commentary

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The Downs and dairy areas down on the coastal plains received between 20 and 30 millimetre of rain this week.
It was excellent for sown dairy pastures.
Any pastures with lucerne in them are coming away very quickly.
And the rain will improve the feed value of kikuyu pastures.
Queensland November milk production was 4.4 per cent more than the milk produced in November 2008.
July to November milk litres were up 6.3 per cent on the same period one year earlier.
Forward contracts with fixed prices for milk have helped growers delay the onset of lower milk prices on some farms.
New season sorghum from the Lockyer valley is now running, or was running, before the rain stopped the harvest, just as it was starting.
Sorghum prices were held up by trade shorts into Brisbane.
They needed to be cleared by the end of January, and from growers, as they are holding the bulk of the old crop stocks.
With January finished, and the shorts covered, the bids are sharply lower.
Sorghum is down $15 on last week.
Part of this is due to rain increasing central Queensland sorghum prospects.
And slightly improving yields for late sown sorghum in southern Queensland.
Wheat is down $2, but the wheat is mostly milling quality and doesn’t compete cleanly with sorghum and feed barley.
Some durum or macaroni wheat is looking for homes.
It has performed well when fed to milking herds in northern Victoria, but take advice before buying and using.
Barley prices are down $5 for F1, and is now equal to wheat.
This attests to its local shortage of barley.
Most F1 supplies are coming from southern New South Wales or Victoria.
Maize prices are steady.
New crop maize should be available at the end of the month, but not necessarily feed varieties.
Wheat exporters and livestock producers are each competing for the same wheat as all of the recent harvest was of milling quality.
Dairy farmers have instructed their merchants to only offer F1 quality barley.
Supplies of this barley and any other feed barley are in short supply through Queensland and New South Wales.
So F1 feed buying interest now extends as far south as Victoria.
Barley is priced equal to wheat, but it has a lower energy value for cows, but feedlots tend to prefer barley for summer growth rates and white fat cover.
Barley seems the preferred energy cereal for dairy cows on present pricing even though it is expensive.

2. Darling Downs – Hay Commentary

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Rain has dampened demand to a degree; however hay trading for beef cattle weaning programs still remains consistent.
Feedlots are also consistent users of hay, but mainly lower grades, eg straw. Protein and Energy levels are maintained by grain in the mix.
Given the reduced level of activity prices do not appear to be subsiding.
It is suggested approximately half of the normal area has been sown for sorghum grain production. Many of these crops will now be cut for hay or silage as they may not produce a viable grain yield.
Most crops being cut now are around a metre high, and yielding nearly 5t/ha.
Nitrate levels in sorghum hay could be high this year. Those intending to purchase sorghum hay should inspect test results before feeding to stock.
Forage sorghums planted now could expect to be cut for hay or silage in March April.
Cereal straw is also in short supply with no bulk to cereal crops this year, however in contrast to last year straw is of excellent quality.
Demand for straw is strong from both dairy and feedlot markets.
Mushroom farms have a keen demand for wheat straw which has a higher cellulose content and breaks down less readily than barley straw.
Feedlots are utilising barley straw
Demand is strong for chaff quality lucerne for the horse market. This higher quality hay is trading at the top end of the scale around $400/t ex farm.

3. North Coast NSW – Grain Commentary

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A heavy rain down the coast below the border this week.
60 millimetres was a typical recording, Casino recorded 140 millimetres.
There was some localized flooding, but compared to the last two years, nothing to worry about.
In fact it was enough to make a difference to the summer pasture paddocks, based on kikuyu.
The growth response will be rapid and these pastures can take some silt without a negative impact on pasture dry matter production.
The rain was also positive to sown summer forage crops.
But grazing of these will be done more carefully than the pastures paddocks, as there will be issues of trampling of the tall feed and soil pugging.
There is some grain sorghum sown this season at Casino and it is worth identifying as potential feed source for cows.
It would be good buying at any number that was $40 a tonne cheaper than the local feed maize, when the two crops are stripped.
Thus should be in April or May, depending if any re-sowing was needed after the Christmas rains.
Grain prices have shown a downward correction in both New South Wales and Queensland markets over recent weeks and that correction continues.
The main fall was in wheat, but with new season Downs sorghum ready, sorghum prices are down $15 a tonne this week.
This may be an over reaction, given wet conditions have stopped the harvest when it had only just started.
Nevertheless, any grower wanting to sell is facing sharply lower trade and consumer bids.
More growers have been trying to sell to generate a cash flow, and most recognize that sorghum prices are lower after the rains.
All of the Queensland wheat is of milling quality, so a fall in the milling wheat price is registered as a fall also in the stockfeed wheat price as both end user groups are competing for the same commodity quality.
The wheat price is down $2 a tonne this week.
Sorghum is down $15 after being held steady last week by trade shorts.
Feed barley is down $5 as southern feed barley sources (Vic) have met the lower northern prices for wheat and sorghum.
Maize prices are steady.
The feed barley price is still elevated above its normal relativity with wheat and sorghum prices.
The north coast is usually supplied with grain from south east Queensland due to cheaper road freights.
About 15 per cent of the NSW corn will be produced on the north coast this year.
Other areas have restricted water rights for the eighth year in a row.
Coastal corn is doing better than the dryland inland corn.
Local maize is a very good feed resource as it doesn’t carry any significant road freight.
Get to know your local maize growers.
Nothing but good can come from knowing your potential suppliers.

3. North Coast NSW – Hay Commentary

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While the benefits of the rain to the summer active pastures will be valuable for grazing and future fodder production. There were some who were caught with windrows on the ground, which has been damaged by the rain.
Many fodder producers are turning their pastures into silage taking advantage of the quick production time from cutting to baling in an effort to avoid windrows on the ground as a summer storm arrives, which generally produce rain in large volumes and cause the most damage to hay.
As a consequence of the rain general demand has subsided. However there are those that have had too much rain and need fodder to maintain livestock until pastures respond.
Feedlots are a constant in the Northern hay market, however due to low beef prices are conscious about price.
Dairy Farmers are planting corn which will be for pit silage production for on farm use.
Barley straw is highly sought after, quality is excellent, though availability is scarce. There is increasing demand for wheat straw as the second choice to barley.
Lucerne hay is becoming increasingly difficult to source, hay produced before the rain is of excellent quality as the dry has provided quick curing times.
Lucerne producers In the region South West of Tamworth have reported crops are now ready to cut as a result of the Christmas rainfall. Falls varied in the area from 5-8 inches and breathed life back into dryland crops which were struggling prior to Christmas.
Many of these crops are expected to yield 2.5t/ha, a yield which many dryland producers have not seen for many years.
Lucerne to the horse market in small squares is trading around $400/t ex farm.
There is little cereal hay available to the region as little was planted in the autumn when it was too wet and all of a sudden it became too dry in the winter. The lack of cereal hay has not yet put upward pressure on prices.
It has been estimated that up to 80% of the area normally sown to cereals did not get sown down. These paddocks will most likely be used for summer crops on the back of recent rain.
Straw will not be available in the immediate area and may need to come from Glen Innes and Inverell. Freight will be expensive and beef feedlots will be keen buyers from the western areas.

4. Central West NSW – Grain Commentary

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No rainfall to Wednesday morning, but a good dump is expected before the weekend.
Good grazing for sheep and cattle now from crop stubbles. Stubbles not so important for milking herds, unless the crop was grown on the same dairy farm.
But stubbles are being used for young stock and for dry cows that have been taken off the farms.
Some summer crops went in on dairy farms as opportunity crops.
They are ready for grazing now but will need the coming rain if they are going to recover from the grazing.
New season sorghum availability has taken away the urgency for immediate delivery to stockfeed plants.
Until the harvest started any sorghum to cover trade shorts had to be winkled out of grower farm stocks.
Wheat prices are down $5 a tonne this week.
This is tied in with lower sorghum prices, which were also down $5.
Feed barley for this region is down $10, not so much on local grower selling, but on aggressive selling by merchants of southern barley.
The maize price is up.
First new crop maize is expected out of Moree before the end of the month.
With no feed grade wheats produced in New South Wales this season, livestock producers are competing with domestic millers and buying for millers in New Zealand and the Pacific Islands for the same wheat.
This will continue till November 2010.
Although new season sorghum is running, there will not be enough supply to overcome the feed grain deficit over 2010 in southern Queensland.
Most of the wheat went from growers into warehousing, and is slowly being transferred to pools or sold to cash buyers.
Grain protein is high for both central west wheat and barley – feed values for cows are good.
Any triticale that is offered should be considered if at a price discount to wheat.
Sorghum and maize prices are at levels that still rule them out of most stock feed rations.
But this is based on sorghum brought south out of the Gunnedah area.
NSW Agriculture suggests 100 hectares of local sorghum.
This should translate to six or seven hundred tonnes under irrigation.
Prices for this sorghum should be around $180 for pickup on the production farm.
380 hectares of local maize is also estimated to be in the ground for possibly 3,500 tonnes.
Any feed grade corn that appears from this would be good buying for use in winter at $240 or less on the production farm.

4. Central West NSW – Hay Commentary

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Only small volumes of hay trading in the region. The limited amount produced last spring is the main restriction and many who are looking for hay are being force further afield as many local hay producers have their limited quantities for sale accounted for.
Given the rain that fell over the Christmas New Year period. Dry land lucerne crops have responded well, however many lucerne growers are eying these paddocks for lamb grazing in preference to cutting hay.
Unlike Victoria hay is trading at prices similar to this time last year. A combination of reduced hay supplies, and a consistent demand from the Bega dairy market has contributed to hay prices in the area maintaining an even level.
Given these trading conditions prices are not expected to drop until supply increases and demand decreases. This may occur with a favourable season but even so, September may be the earliest point in which hand feeding could be wound back and the prospects of hay production is clearer.
The New Year rain has encouraged the germination and growth of summer active weeds, which producers are spraying in an attempt to conserve moisture in the soil profile, for the benefit of the subsequent cereal crops at sowing time.
Trading activity for immediate delivery is minimal. However Bega Valley dairy farmers are being proactive in securing their fodder supplies for next season by purchasing now for agreed delivery times over the coming months.
Local grain and hay producers are showing interest in awnless wheat varieties for this year’s sowing which will enable them to produce higher quality cereal hay if they cut, or still produce a high quality milling grain if the season is favourable.
Straw has been baled from crops which were dense enough to justify baling. It has been suggested that larger quantities of straw will be produced in the region compared to last year.
The demand for lucerne and the limited supply has put upward pressure on prices. Irrigation from surface water is almost nonexistent, though some growers do have access to underground water, but the supply of hay from these paddocks is limited and will struggle to keep up with demand.
Lucerne in small squares for the chaff market is fetching up to $400/t ex farm.
Further north in the Wellington region growers report their lucerne yields will be back by up to 80%
Frosted wheaten hay is available around Young.
On the whole a far lesser proportion of cereal crops have been cut for hay than in previous years.
The amount of canola hay cut has been extremely minimal particularly when compared to previous years.
Many crops cut for hay may not make it onto the market as those with their own livestock will utilise it for their own use and any excess will be sold in the winter when there is more confidence in the new season.

5. Bega Valley – Grain Commentary

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Seven millimetres of rain early in the week, and probably more coming by the weekend.
This will keep the feed moving, after the mid January rain of 28 millimetres.
That mid January rain was the best since early December.
It was welcome but far too late to turn the poor season around.
New South Wales milk production for November was up 1.2 per cent on the November 2008 production.
Local prices were helpful in the local results.
But maintaining Bega valley milk production through the summer is going to be difficult.
The mid January rain did allow some inflow to Brogo Dam but the level is still very low.
Dairy farmers have been using all the spring feed they have from both the hill country and the river flats.
The feed in both situations is getting thin under the grazing pressure.
This is means fodder as well as grain needs to be carried to the cows.
Dry cows in some cases have been taken out of the district.
All of the New South Wales wheat from the recent harvest went into milling wheat categories.
With no feed grade wheat, intensive livestock industries are competing with flour millers and wheat exporters for wheat requirements.
However the sorghum harvest has just started in the north west of NSW.
This has softened the whole of the feed grain complex through the state.
As well as new season sorghum starting to run, the end of January came with some trade shorts on sorghum and wheat.
Buying in to cover these positions elevated the late January market.
Come February, the shorts are covered, and consumers are getting by on January deliveries.
Also in most contracts for wheat and barley, certainly in the south, the harvest period covers January.
Thus consumers, at their call under the contact, can take grain at the harvest price.
But after January a carry charge applies.
It is usually $2.00 to $2.50 a month for the months of February through to June.
Just now a number of stockfeed companies are considering not buying in February, but taking earlier contracted grain and paying the February carry charge.
This week all grains were down $5 a tonne.
With the New South Wales grain harvest finished, it is no longer possible to take wheat out of paddocks at Cowra, Temora, or Junee, without incurring a storage and handling cost.
Even if wheat is in a farm silo, growers now seek to recover inloading and outloading costs.
Merchants and traders’ grain have storage and handling cost components included in the price.
Victorian feed barley this year is variable, so it is important best to check sample weights of all barley coming in and also use screens to check for screenings.
If a farmer pays for F1 quality barley it is important that the stated quality is received.
As the feed barley quality grades go down, deduct $13 for the F2 and the F3 steps down, and a further $20 for F4.
Of prime importance is to specify a minimum grade in the contract, and to weigh and put through a screen on receival, to confirm the category received meets the contract specs.
The difference between F1 with a test weight of 62.5 kilograms, and F4 which has minimum test weight of 50 kilograms is very significant in trying to produce milk.
Most growers still have wheat warehoused, with ownership retained.
Dairy farmers need to be convinced of the value of triticale if they are asked to pay a premium over wheat.

5. Bega Valley – Hay Commentary

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7mm of rain at Bega but over 30mm at Nowra.
With summer active kikuyu grasses Bega will be looking for a summer storm to boost pastures and reduce fodder consumption.
While there are consistent volumes of hay trading into the Bega, mainly higher protein vetch. We are yet to see a lift in these volumes, which in light of the limited summer rain so far, would be expected to increase if weather patterns remain dry for the rest of the summer and into the autumn.
It is expected the Bega will continue to be a major consumer of fodder over the coming months.
Trading into the Bega is stemming from NSW cereal producers and some trading of vetch from the Wimmera in Victoria.
Bega dairy farmers are also securing their fodder needs with their suppliers from central NSW. While not necessarily taking immediate delivery of the hay, they are concerned that if purchases are not secured now, hay will have to come from interstate to meet their requirements.
Beef cattle producers have simply destocked due to the harsh autumn and winter, where as dairy farmers tend to be still maintaining their herd sizes, though the challenge lies in maintaining production with a reduced milk price combined with the need to buy in large volumes of hay and grain.
Vetch from the Wimmera in Victoria is a realistic option for those wanting to purchase high protein hay. At $180/t ex farm this is an economic alternative to lucerne from the central districts around Forbes and Cowra, which is in limited supply anyway.
Cereal hay is available to the Bega Valley from the Forbes and Central NSW districts. Buyers should be aware that some of these crops cut for hay as a result of frost were intended for grain production and may have been sprayed for rust control. These hay crops could possibly have been cut while still inside the fungicides’ withholding period. If in doubt ask for an Australian Fodder Industry Association (AFIA) vendor declaration with the consignment.
Some farmers in the Bega were fortunate enough to harvest silage from forage cereal crops.
Canola silage and hay should not be an item for fodder markets this coming season as most crops will go through to seed in the production areas.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Grain Commentary

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Hot summer conditions have set in.
No rain and it would not do much good for pastures if any did come.
So the landscape is dry except where paddocks are being summer irrigated.
Most dairy farmers seem to have held their water, to be used on extending the growing season of grazing cereals.
Watering of these cereals and annual crops of legumes for cows should start later this month.
Murray water allocations were held steady at the review on 1^st February but Goulburn water allocations were increased by one per cent to 56 per cent of water rights.
The new year rains took some feed value out of the standing dry feed that feed many herds are working their way through, and similarly from cereal stubbles.
Irrigated summer pastures are providing excellent feed where farmers have them.
The northern Victorian grain harvest is well finished and grain, both wheat and barley is well bedded down.
Some grain is still unharvested in the Western District but the grain pathway for Western District grain is not normally north and in any case there are only a few coastal grain crops not stripped.
Locally there are a number of grain silo bags visible - mostly holding lower grade barley.
Often the grade is not known because it was not tested before being sealed.
Growers are anxious not to hold this grain too long as outturns for the past two years have been variable.
The feed barley price for F1 is steady. For F2 deduct $12 a tonne. For F3 deduct another $13. For F4 deduct a further $20 a tonne. Victorian and South Australian F1 barley is in demand for Queensland use, as there is a Queensland feed grain shortage.
But that said, the Queensland sorghum harvest was starting to run before their rain this week.
Queensland prices came back $5 and Wimmera feed barley suppliers have eased their prices to Queensland by $5 so there is some softness in feed barley prices.
It is essential when buying barley to specify a minimum grade in the written contract.
Tests weights through the grades vary from 62.5 kilograms for F1 to 50 kilograms for F4.
Responses in terms of milk between these two grades will be great.
Money is tight through the region as it is in most dairy areas with the lower milk prices.
We have heard reports that grain merchants, growers and truckies are having to extend payment terms for grain and services supplied over the harvest. So extended terms may be being sought across dairy and other farm sectors.
There are also reports that some payments to grain growers are running late for harvest delivered grain – if correct, this makes suppliers nervous.
Triticale prices are down $2 steady.
Triticale is now competitive with feed barley, which is currently the preferred dairy grain for on farm crushing.
Although much of the wheat is dark it is suited for milling and is making milling prices.
The amount of weather damaged wheat was less than expected and not enough to soften dairy wheat prices.
There is some high screenings wheat available. It is described as 70/10 wheat.
It has a minimum test weight of 70 kilograms a hectolitre, and maximum screenings of 10%.
70/10 is down $3 a tonne this week.
Note: During and just after harvest, it is possible to source grain direct ex grain farms or from paddock field bins. This can save up to $20/t by avoiding storage double handling and freight costs, but buyers need to have the storage and infrastructure as well as the management time to negotiate these deals directly.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Hay Commentary

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Many dairy farms have limited demand for fodder of any description. On farm produced silage is still being utilised and it is not expected that until these supplies are exhausted that demand for hay will increase.
Historically hay has never been cheaper in the last four years than it is now. It is expected demand will increase as we move closer to the autumn and then further still as we get to winter.
Quality throughout the state is varied, now may be an opportune time to select the best quality hay while prices are low.
In western areas of the GV where the season was not as favourable many grain growers have elected not to bale straw due to the lack of demand and they feel there is more value for this year’s crop for the straw to assist in maintaining moisture in the soil.
However it is in these pockets where the best quality cereal hay has been produced. Test results indicate these areas where there were lower rainfalls, are producing hay with higher ME. Because of this scenario of so much variability in the season it is essential to have hay tested to know exactly what you are feeding your cows.
Around Elmore where the season was better there are good quantities of straw available.
Many hay and grain producers are now spraying summer weeds that have appeared in stubble paddocks in response to summer rains.
There is a consistent trickle of high quality vetch and lucerne hay into the Goulburn Valley as many dairy farmers cannot maintain production on cereal hay this year. Given the reasonable season for cereal hay production, many test results are indicating ME and Protein levels are back to a more normal level, when compared to the higher testing drought stressed cereal crops of the previous few years.
Lucerne and Vetch are trading at similar levels around 200-220/t ex farm to the dairy market. However if lucerne hay quality is high enough, growers are selling to the chaff market which are paying premiums of up to $100/t and are consistent consumer.
Lucerne prices for the dairy market are being forced in line with Vetch, as there are large quantities available in the neighbouring Wimmera of good quality vetch hay.
There was some discolouration in vetch crops from rain; however the level of damage appears to be relative to the timing between cutting and the rain event. Rain inside 3-4 days of cutting tended to do little damage. Rain further out than 5 days from cutting did more.
With the current prices for lucerne some producers with the challenge of irrigating their stands cannot justify the cost of water for the tonnes/hectare they will produce and are consequently running these stands as dryland for lamb grazing. With a strong lamb market, lucerne producers are opting to turn their stands into meat rather than milk.
Large square bales seem to be the bale of choice in the GV as mixer wagons are commonplace. Compared to rolls they tend to break up more effectively and also are more efficient with freight.

7. Gippsland – Grain Commentary

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No rain this week, nevertheless there is a lot of green feed persisting through east and west Gippsland.
Green feed on paddocks that were cut for silage and on irrigation paddocks.
And most Gippsland dairy farms had surplus spring feed to take off as silage.
Dairy dryland pastures remain green on the heavier soils and in the more southern and eastern areas.
But growth rates on these pastures have declined and coupled with cows in the late stages of lactations, milk production should decline over February as is normally the case.
Better green feed tends to be on areas that were not covered with grass.
Some of the green feed is summer clover growth.
There were useful rains through Gippsland in January.
This kept the green feed going and there is good green feed ahead of cows.
But it will be grazed back hard, if not helped by some February rain.
Farmers have chosen a limited range of summer cropping options, mostly sorghums and millets.
Soil moisture got them away and there were good January rains.
The Western District grain harvest is not quite finished.
Paddocks in more southerly locations and closer to the coast are slow to dry down to the maximum moisture level for delivery.
But hot weather this week should hurry things along.
Some of the late crops to be stripped are either triticale or red wheats.
These late maturing crops are well filled and in contrast to some of the heat affected wheat and barley crops.
The Western District has a wide range of feed barley qualities this year.
Buying wheat or barley out of the paddock can provide cost savings.
But there are practical problems; one is that growers with wheat in paddocks have not had it tested at a receival site, so it is ungraded in grain quality terms.
So in your contract negotiations, ensure a minimum grain specification to ensure you are not being supplied with lower quality grain which will directly impact your milk output.
Often visual assessments apply for quality, so take a sample before the delivery truck discharges.
Wheat prices are down $3 a tonne this week for 70/10 wheats (70kg/hl weight and 10% screenings) from northern Victoria and southern New South Wales
These grades are setting the stockfeed wheat price including into the poultry sector.
The fall exactly reverses the wheat rise last week.
Feed barley prices are steady for F1. For F2 deduct $12 a tonne; F3 deduct another $13; F4 deduct a further $20 a tonne
The feed barley category used in our table is F1, but there is a lot of light weight feed barley from F2 to F3 and F4.
F4 has a minimum test weight of only 50 kilograms a hectolitre and can consist of 100 per cent screenings.
It is useful to stockfeed mills that hammer mill but of low value to under silo crackers, crushers and rollers.
Plenty of barley went into farm silo bags, but the quality of the contents may not be known, perhaps even to the growers who arranged for this storage.
Victorian and South Australian F1 barley is in demand for Queensland use, as there is a Queensland feed grain shortage.
Best oats are in demand for seed for use in northern New South Wales as February sown oats for winter cattle feed production.
Note: During and just after harvest, it is possible to source grain direct ex grain farms or from paddock field bins. This can save up to $20/t by avoiding storage double handling and freight costs, but buyers need to have the storage and infrastructure as well as the management time to negotiate these deals directly.

7. Gippsland – Hay Commentary

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Typical for this time of year there was no rain this last week. Most producers do not look for rain now as it washes nutrients out of remaining dry feed and is considered too early for a break in the season.
Both hay producers and dairy farmers will be looking for rain from March onwards.
Prices remain stable in line with limited trading activity.
West Gippsland is enjoying a solid production season of hay and pasture hay stocks are plentiful. There is dryland pasture available with a green pick at the base. Also the recent rainfalls are providing highly productive summer forage crops to dairy farmers.
Al these factors are diminishing the demand for local pasture hay. Though some are buying vetch from the Wimmera/Mallee, but this trading is not extensive.
Many maize crops for silage production have got through without irrigation and expect to be cut in March.
There appears to be an unwritten reserve of $150/t ex farm for pasture hay. Sellers are happy to wait until demand increases, which is expected in late autumn and early winter.
West Gippsland has good levels of dry paddock feed, however further east around sale to Bairnsdale paddocks are bare and trading of fodder may increase to this region in the coming weeks.
Hay that was cut early and baled without rain damage should be of exceptional quality as clover content of pastures has been higher than previous years.
Demand for Lucerne is limited. Buyers are willing to pay 250/t del, however growers are unwilling to sell at these levels and there is an unwritten reserve of $300/t del that growers are not prepared to sell under.
Vetch from the Wimmera is an option for high protein requirements. At $180 ex Wimmera farm, it presents itself as an attractive alternative to local lucerne.
Yields for pasture hay are highly variable depending what part of Gippsland you are in.
East of Traralgon to Sale and down to Yarram the spring has been unfavourable and pasture has not reached its full potential. Further west around Moe and Warragul and down to Korumburra the spring has been kind resulting in exceptional yields.
While it may sound attractive to purchase local pasture hay by the bale, more economic purchasing opportunities may exist with cereal hay from the Wimmera. Reports of local pasture hay selling for $65/bale equates to over $200/t. Given that there are good buying opportunities in the Wimmera cereal hay could be landed in Gippsland at the same level or even less.
Contractors are reporting there has been a swing to favour silage production by those feeding their own livestock due to the reduction in time the windrow is exposed.

8. South West Vic – Grain Commentary

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No rain through the region this week, but dairy dryland pastures remain doggedly green.
But growth rates on these pastures have declined and coupled with cows in the late stages of lactations, milk production should decline over February as is normally the case.
On taller pastures, the grass has dried off but there is still green feed that cows can browse.
Better green feed tends to be on areas that were not covered with grass.
Some of the green feed is summer clover growth.
Some of the bare areas were made that way, through the taking off of silage.
There had been good rains through the Western District dairy areas until late January.
This kept the green feed going and there is good green feed ahead of cows.
But it will be grazed back hard, if not helped by some February rain.
Helping the dry land feed are central pivots operating from bores.
And some farmers are using reticulation from the wash down water onto summer feed paddocks.
Farmers have chosen a range of summer cropping options, including millets, forage sorghum, turnips and rape and even November sown feed oats crops, which are now flowering and ready for grazing. Soil moisture got them away.
The Western District grain harvest is not quite finished.
Paddocks in more southerly locations and closer to the coast are slow to dry down to the maximum moisture level for delivery.
But hot weather this week should hurry things along.
Some of the late crops to be stripped are either triticale or red wheats.
These late maturing crops are well filled and in contrast to some of the heat affected wheat and barley crops.
The Western District has a wide range of feed barley qualities this year.
Buying wheat or barley out of the paddock can provide cost savings.
But there are practical problems; one is that growers with wheat in paddocks have not had it tested at a receival site, so it is ungraded in grain quality terms.
So in your contract negotiations, ensure a minimum grain specification to ensure you are not being supplied with lower quality grain which will directly impact your milk output.
Often visual assessments apply for quality, so take a sample before the delivery truck discharges.
Wheat prices are down $3 a tonne this week for 70/10 wheats (70kg/hl weight and 10% screenings) from northern Victoria and southern New South Wales
These grades are setting the stockfeed wheat price including into the poultry sector.
The fall exactly reverses the wheat rise last week.
Feed barley prices are steady for F1. For F2 deduct $12 a tonne; F3 deduct another $13; F4 deduct a further $20 a tonne
The feed barley category used in our table is F1, but there is a lot of light weight feed barley from F2 to F3 and F4.
F4 has a minimum test weight of only 50 kilograms a hectolitre and can consist of 100 per cent screenings.
It is useful to stockfeed mills that hammer mill but of low value to under silo crackers, crushers and rollers.
Plenty of barley went into farm silo bags, but the quality of the contents may not be known, perhaps even to the growers who arranged for this storage.
Victorian and South Australian F1 barley is in demand for Queensland use, as there is a Queensland feed grain shortage.
Best oats are in demand for seed for use in northern New South Wales as February sown oats for winter cattle feed production.
Note: During and just after harvest, it is possible to source grain direct ex grain farms or from paddock field bins. This can save up to $20/t by avoiding storage double handling and freight costs, but buyers need to have the storage and infrastructure as well as the management time to negotiate these deals directly.

8. South West Vic – Hay Commentary

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While recent weeks have been extremely quiet for those with hay to sell, many hay producers report recent enquiry has resulted in sales over the last week.
Many prospective hay purchasers are realising the quality in the south west is extremely variable and wanting to secure their purchases of the best quality hay at the current level rather than wait for the autumn time when demand traditionally increases and fodder choices decrease.
Some cereal grain crops are still yet to be headed, and straw could be purchased straight behind the baler from keen sellers. Those that have stacked straw already will be looking to recuperate handling cost and are prepared to wait for winter premiums.
Many dairy farmers are strip grazing brassica crops. With solid rainfalls in December and January these crops are providing large volumes of feed to cows.
Some keen sellers are offering weather damaged cereal hay at levels around $80/t ex farm. They are just looking to cover costs and are hanging on to higher grades to sell when demand increases.
Hay baling has now finished, however quality is varied from south west dairy pasture hay. This may necessitate some dairy farmers to purchase higher quality hays to compensate weather damaged hay produced on farm.
There should be good availability of straw as barley crops in the region are bulky and dense.
Many barley crops close to the south west dairy region have now been harvested and the straw behind the header baled. This is a great opportunity for those who need straw for their winter fibre needs as straw can be purchased now out of the paddock without incurring handling and storage cost many producer will need to recoup in the winter. Straw producers will be keen to get bales off paddocks as recent rains have provided green stubble feed and many wish to graze with lambs or spray summer weeds.
Hay purchasers will need to be well informed about the timing of cutting and baling of hay they intend to purchase as there has been extensive damage to pasture hay in the south west regions of Western Victoria. Most of this damage should be visible in the bale.
Good spring growing conditions have led to high yields of hay which is now compromised on quality with large quantities of rain on windrows. While the majority of hay was baled before the rain as far south as the Princes highway and as far west as Mortlake, it has been suggested that there was approximately 50% of the hay down west of Mortlake to and south of Hamilton.
The damaged pasture hay may only be suitable for dry cows, this may increase the need for dairy farmers to increase the proportion of higher quality hay they buy in during summer months.
A wet winter and hot dry conditions mid spring inhibited the amount of silage conserved by dairy farmers.
In this region some barley crops have been cut for hay as a consequence of prospective barley prices at harvest. These growers who are confident of their hay marketing ability see more profit in cutting their bulky crops for hay than taking a subdued barley price at harvest.
Pasture hay in the western districts that wasn’t rain affected should be of exceptional quality as clover content of pastures was high.
Many vetch growers intend to store for later sales. Vetch hay should be in ample supply as large acreages have been were sown and yields are substantially better than the last few years. Growers report that vetch hay has been more popular than lucerne.

9. South East SA – Grain Commentary

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No rain again this week but the region still has green feed.
Most of it is from irrigation, allowing strip grazing of summer fodder crops.
But where paddocks were hard grazed in spring, or cut for silage in December, there is good regrowth.
And there is enough soil moisture to keep it moving for some time yet.
It is easier to manage milk production when the base intake for cows is high protein grass.
Nevertheless there is a role for protein meal and pulse supplements over summer.
Christmas rains were useful to the longer growing season southern dairy areas.
AWB, Grain Pool of WA and ABB Grain each reduced their wheat pool estimates by $5 to $10 a tonne.
South Australian grain is very dependent on export markets, so SA cash wheat prices are down about $4-5 this week.
Traders issue cash bid prices based on export factors, the same factors that are used to value the unsold tonnages held in pools.
Heat adversely affected grain crops at Keith, particularly the barley crops.
Very few made a malting grade, but most of the feed barley this year is F1 and hence the crop filled better than it did last year.
This should relate to more energy in barley this year for livestock of all classes.
New season wheat and barley is noticeably darker than grain from the previous harvest.
The current price margin between wheat and barley favours barley (approx $40/t) at this stage for dairy feeds both home mixes and manufactured pellets.
Triticale is steady at $186 delivered dairy farms in the region.
A lot of grain this season is still held in warehousing while growers decide whether to pool it or market it progressively to exporters.
Warehoused grain is just one step further removed from cash buyers of single loads.
Single load dairy buyers need to focus on growers with home private storage, or to work with grain merchants who are on top of the storage, outloading and transport issues.
For farms with larger grain requirements and with 2010 supply arrangements not bedded down, it may be prudent to contact a handling company, (e.g., Viterra, GrainCorp, AWB, etc) to discuss farmer registration to bid for warehoused grain when it is required.

9. South East SA – Hay Commentary

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Sellers are expecting trading levels to increase in the autumn as dairy farms consume their own silage stocks first.
Very little trading activity in the South East, few have felt the need to purchase straight out of the paddock and prefer to purchase when the need arises.
Many dairy farmers appear to have their immediate fodder needs covered. A good season which has armed them with solid stocks of home grown silage and hay may well deter any hay purchasing until the autumn and winter as their own stocks dwindle.
Vetch appears to be inhibiting sales of lucerne to the dairy market. Vetch from the Wimmera is in good supply and is high in quality.
The south east of South Australia did not receive as much rain that fell further north and east during November. Though most districts in the south east received at least 50mm.
The majority of hay producers had already baled and stacked their hay, but top bales on stacks will be affected.
Wind has blown hay that was in windrows around Robe and through to Mount Gambier , losses are estimated around 20%, however severely affected paddocks may lose up to 70% of their production. Mainly pasture hay blew as cereals tend to have more weight to the windrow.
Demand for hay is limited, producers are happy to store until demand increases in the late summer and autumn.
The south east is a big producer of lucerne seed, the seed is harvested from the regrowth after the first cut. Large quantities of seed from last year are in existence and may encourage seed producers to cut for hay instead if they feel there is a market willing to buy.
Though some growers are considering the returns from grazing their lucerne stands with lambs, which may be more attractive than producing hay at sub $200/t ex farm.

10. Central SA – Grain Commentary

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The hot and dry conditions mean any irrigated feed is premium grazing.
In the Murray basin and flats, it is an easier matter for dairy farmers to maintain milk production when they are building on soft green feed from floods irrigated or central pivot irrigated paddocks.
Cows on solely dry feed need more care and higher inclusions of protein that can be used within the rumen.
It was a dry week for the whole of South Australia.
South Australian milk production for November was down 3.7 per cent compared to November 2008.
For the July to November period the aggregate milk production was trailing that for the same period in 2008, by 3.0 per cent.
AWB, Grain Pool of WA and ABB Grain each reduced their wheat pool estimates by $5 to $10 a tonne two weeks ago.
South Australian grain is very dependent on export markets.
There were some miller bids at $195 Adelaide for ASW wheat late last week.
But on Monday and Tuesday best ASW bids were $188.
This was down $4 on our prices for last week.
But wheat is still too expensive against feed barley in most South Australian dairy rations.
Quite a bit of grower wheat has been delivered to pools over the past two weeks.
Pool wheat is usually stored and moved to ports for the export trade.
It can be marketed to the domestic market but not normally.
The feed barley price is down $1 for F1.
Most of the South Australian feed barley from the recent harvest is either F1 or F2 category.
But should be suitable for dairy feeds but with lower test weights and higher screenings, there should be a $10 to $12 a tonne discount for F2 category.
Feed barley from Victoria’s Western District has a wide variation in quality this year, with grades from F1 to F4. So ensure the quality specification before buying.
A lot of grain this season is still held in warehousing while growers decide whether to pool it or market it progressively to exporters.
Warehoused grain is just one step further removed from cash buyers of single loads.
Single load dairy buyers need to focus on growers with home private storage, or to work with grain merchants who are familiar with the outloading and transport issues.
Most of the feed barley is down half a per cent in grain protein on barley produced in the previous season.
The price differential against wheat still favours barley in cow rations, especially in the hotter months.
There is some weather damaged wheat, but not enough to soften stockfeed wheat prices, but worth chasing.
It should have the same feed value as this season ASW wheat, but it is always best to do a feed test to confirm this.
Our table wheat prices are for ASW quality wheat.

10. Central SA – Hay Commentary

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Very little trading activity in Central SA. Producers don’t expect to see this change until later in the summer and into the autumn. Cereal hay the bread and butter of the region is ample in supply.
Straw is expected to be in plentiful supply, however quality may vary between districts due to the rain in late November and early December.
Hay producers are heartened by the levels of optimism by local dairy farmers. Although little hay is trading, there is a level of enquiry which was not apparent a couple of months ago.
Many producers do not see selling hay as a high priority at this time of year. They are keen to get on with the job of harvesting their grain crops and leave hay sales until next autumn.
While the majority of hay has been baled, the rainfall over the recent weeks should not be an issue for damage in the windrow, however the top bales of large square stacks stored outside will have absorbed the rain and quality will be questionable.
A lot of hay produced on the Fleurieu Peninsula is baled up as rolls and will have shed rain while still in the paddock.
An exceptional season has led to substantial yields in oaten hay crops throughout the mid north. The majority of this hay is destined for export markets; however some early cut crops have been extensively damaged by rain and not suited to export at all.
Later cut crops that missed the rain are making premium export grades, though extremely bulky late cut crops tend to lack the quality and colour for the premium grade.
Conditions on the Yorke Pen are considered some of the best ever with some talking about 8 to 10 mt/ha oat crops.
Prices for export hay are emerging and will be between $105 to $160 delivered processing plant depending on quality.
Demand for lucerne by the dairy sector is relatively dormant, though the horse market is a steady outlet for high quality lucerne and is currently commanding over $400/mt for the small portion of the crop that can achieve this quality.

11. South West WA – Grain Commentary

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Hot conditions not helpful for milk production.
A bit of thunder and lightning through the region but no rain.
Nor is rain being looked for in terms of pasture production.
The record for consecutive dry days for Perth is 80 and early this week the number had reached 75 days.
The effective growing season for non irrigated farms in this region finished in late December.
Any late greenness was lost in the heat conditions through early January.
Pastures fit into two clear categories.
Those that have dried off, with cows requiring a lot of feed brought to them by way of grains and protein supplements and hay or silage.
Then there are those farms that have green feed from irrigation.
Cows on these farms are getting protein from grass and need less protein supplements.
But cows have more hope of giving high milk production so high levels of grain feeding can deliver the energy for this to happen.
Irrigated farms have more need for coarse cereal hay for inclusion in feed carts, than where the milking herd only has access to dry standing feed.
The grain harvest is now finished with all grain now bedded down in secure permanent storage.
The Grain Pool reduced pool estimates by $10 a tonne and the cash market then reacted by closing down $12 a tonne.
This week wheat prices recovered $6 on exporter bids.
Merchants and growers may not react to these weekly fluctuations in their offers to dairy farmers
But when the market falls dairy farmers should look for a price decrease, unless it is forward contracted grain.
The feed barley price for F1 quality remains steady at $180 to $190 delivered the dairy areas.
Triticale is steady on open buy offers of $170 delivered by growers to Perth stockfeed companies.
It is at a discount to wheat, but if protein levels are equal with wheat, the milk outputs from the two grains should be similar, so has potential in a dairy ration, at the $16 discount that currently applies.
Triticale’s discount to wheat stems from it being purely domestic grain at this time.
Oats prices are up another $5 after a $9 rises in January. Demand is coming from potential exporters in containers and in bulk.
Lupins are an important feed ingredient when cracked and presented to cows on dry feed.
There is a limited supply of wheat grades lower than ASW.
It has lower test weight than ASW, and has high screenings, but the starch content is sound.
Dairy farmers may possibly be offered this wheat as ASW or just wheat.
But to a trade buyer in the grain industry it is trading at $10-12 a tonne discount to ASW.
A simple test is to put the wheat through a 2 millimetre receival screen.
If it has more than five per cent going through the screen, that is screenings above 5 per cent, it is not ASW wheat, but AGP or one of the high protein lower grades.
Its minimum test weight, which is easily checked, should be 68 kilograms a hectolitre.

11. South West WA – Hay Commentary

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Some straw is still being baled throughout Western Australia. Generally quality is good though the amount baled this year is expected to be down by approximately 30-50%
Mainly due to the fact that there are still stocks of weather damaged straw available from the 2008 harvest. This rain damaged straw is slowly being absorbed by feed pellet mills.
Piggeries and feedlots are shoring up their straw supplies as they realise that the amount of good quality straw available later on could be limited.
Western Australian dairy farmers are now actively feeding pasture hay to their herds. While some are using on farm produced stocks, others are forced to buy in feed.
Pasture hay is generally of good quality and mainly consists of rye/clover mixes.
Dairy farmers tend to favour pasture hay as it is what their cows are used to. However it is expected as the summer and autumn progress cereal hay will have to be purchased from further afield.
Cereal hay will be readily available in the coming months for south west dairy farmers and it could be prudent now to secure stocks as good quality hay appears good value and may be more expensive later on as demand increases.
Pastures have dried off and only irrigation paddocks remain green. Some are using their water to produce summer forage crops, however are questioning this against the purchasing of grain and hay.
Straw is mainly being purchased for inclusion in total mixed rations. Those that use mainly grazing based systems will require straw in the winter time for fibre in the diet when pastures are extremely watery.
As the summer continues and dairy farmers whittle away on farm produced fodder demand is expected to increase in the late summer early autumn.
Baling of hay is over. Due to the late autumn, pasture growth was inhibited for the growing season and as a consequence yields are estimated to be approximately 30% less than last year.
This may spur demand in the autumn when on farm produced fodder may run out.
Late rain has spurred production on paddocks previously cut for hay. This has provided fresh grazing for Bunbury dairy farmers. Conversely this has damaged the top bales of cereal hay stored outside.
Pasture hay in the region should be of better quality this year with the higher strike rates of clover.
Silage production was similar to previous years, though with a dry start to the summer, feeding may begin earlier than normal.
North of Perth in areas producing oaten hay for the export market curing conditions have been kind and resulted in high quality hay to be baled.

12. North West Tasmania – Grain Commentary

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Another dry week with one or two millimetres through the north west coast and many stations with zero readings.
Tasmanian milk production over November was 2.2 per cent less than for November 2008.
This was a good result given the fewer cows, and the high cost of grain at that time.
But making milk at profit still presents a challenge.
The early season was very good for dairy pastures.
Dryland paddocks are now maturing fast, with non grazed and non topped paddocks now seeding and browning off at the tops.
But there is still green feed persisting close to ground level.
Hard grazed pastures and those that were cut for silage have the green feed from regrowth, apart from irrigated paddocks.
Irrigation pastures are proving their worth in securing quality summer grazing, even in heat waves.
Development of farms means more irrigated pastures each year and with it more reliable summer milk production.
The local harvest is now on.
There has been good weather for harvesting in the Midlands.
Local wheat and barley availability put downward pressure on prices and that was the main reason for lower wheat prices last week.
But the harvest has not yet gathered any pace, with growers and buyers carefully monitoring each load for maximum grain moisture.
Some of the local wheat close to being ready is red wheat, but is not yet running in sufficient volume. Some buyers are waiting for local wheat, but in its absence, have had to go back to mainland supplies and prices are up $6 this week.
There is less mainland red wheat this year and it seems to be confined to Victoria’s Western District.
The feed barley price is up $1, but for all practical considerations remains steady.
Farmers are using a lot more barley in their dairy rations than wheat.
For this to change, the margin in price of wheat over barley would need to come back $10 a tonne.
The Western District grain harvest is almost finished and there is a wide range of wheat and barley qualities.
The main grade of interest to mainland stockfeed manufacturers is the 70/10 wheat category.
It has a minimum test weight of 70 kilograms a hectolitre and maximum screenings of 10 per cent and no stated protein test.
Western District barley quality is highly variable this year.
Plenty of low weight high screenings feed barley through the region this year.
F3 and F4 barley is cheap and has appeal to pellet manufacturers who hammer mill it.
But with only crushing and cracking equipment it is of doubtful value to dairy farmers even at heavy discounts.
Feed tests on these grains don’t give the full story if the crushing equipment allows whole grains to be presented to cows.
Most of the barley shipped to Tasmania should be F1, but it will be important to keep checking this.
Test weight should be a minimum of 62.5 kg a hectolitre and maximum screenings 15%
First indications of lower feed barley category could be lower vat levels following a new load.
There is some weather damaged wheat available from both Victoria and South Australia, but not in quantities sufficient to depress the stockfeed wheat price.
Triticale prices are down $2.

12. North West Tasmania – Hay Commentary

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Like many of the southern mainland regions trading activity is quiet and not expected to lift until the autumn arrives lifting feed intake as the weather cools and pasture levels decrease.
As pastures dry of many dairy farmers will open up their on farm silage. Some were fortunate enough to be able to make enough silage that will keep them going through the year. Others whose pastures suffered with the extremely wet winter and then the long dry period in the spring, are not in as strong a position and will need to look at buying in silage.
When purchasing fodder it is advantageous to know the energy and protein levels in the feed. With this knowledge it is easier to calculate how much to feed out based on the cows energy requirements to produce a given amount of milk. Significant savings and production gains can be made in feeding out fodder in the most efficient manner.
Hay production has finished throughout Tasmania. Balers may have some work to do yet with cereal crops still to be stripped. However many with cereal crops are shying away from straw baling and using choppers and spreaders on headers to deal with trash.
Given straw makes up an important part of the cows diet in winter, it may be prudent to secure straw supplies now during harvest to encourage straw producers to bale.
General hay trading is nonexistent and is not expected to lift for some time yet.
Some pasture hay which was cut late is of poor quality. A feed test will assist in determining the value both from a nutritional and cost perspective.
Limited amounts of wheat straw moving to mushroom farms for composting.
Hay producers are reporting there is more positivity amongst their dairy clients.
There should not have been too much hay spoilt from the November rains as it was too early for most producers to cut for hay production. Some cut pasture crops for silage production may have been affected but will be less affected when going into silage.
Interestingly from July to September Tasmanian rainfall was in the decile 10 range, some districts recording their highest ever rainfall for that period since records have been kept. All of a sudden in October the other extreme occurs where Tasmanian rainfall was in decile 1-3.
Silage production appears to be somewhat mixed throughout the state. In the north west it was extremely wet for pasture growth and recently too dry and pastures are going to head forming thin wispy crops with no bulk, rather than tillering to produce promising yields.
Reports of annual ryegrass silage crops up to 8t/Ha.
Sales of silage could be possible from farmers to dairy farmers. In these cases trades should be made considering the moisture and energy levels of the silage in question. Careful measurement of moisture should be undertaken for any trade in silage. A dry matter (DM) price is the starting point that can be calculated from a prevailing hay price i.e.
Hay cost per bale/weight mt = price/mt
Hay price $/mt / (hay moisture content %) = DM price/mt.
This DM price is then corrected for the silage moisture content i.e.
DM price x (silage moisture %) = silage price wet /mt.
If you were to take a bale of hay valued at $60 and a bale of silage at $60, both of exactly the same quality, let’s compare the DM cost of each.

Silage	$60/0.500mt = $120/mt
	$120 / 50% = $240/DM mt
Hay	$60/0.350mt = $171/mt
	$171/ 86% = $198/DM mt
In this example the DM cost is considerably less for the hay but highlights the fact that you need to know exactly what you are paying for and how costs are affected by both bale weights and moisture levels.

Any likely premiums in quality for the silage over the hay need to be taken into account as well.