International and national grain report

National background comments: report for the week ending 23th June, 2017

The next update will be on Friday 30th June, 2017. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.

INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL SUMMARY

Driving Prices Up

  • Dry weather concerns in the Black Sea, parts of Europe, Australia and Canada are driving up prices. 
  • Early winter wheat yields from Kansas are lower than expected for the HRW but better for the SRW. 
  • Hot and dry weather in the parts of the United States continue to support prices. Reports suggest potential severe drought in North and South Dakota.
  • Dry weather in Ukraine and Europe is affecting the yield potential.
  • Crop concerns in China are increasing following record warm temperatures.


Driving Prices Down
  • The United States HRW harvest is underway adding selling pressure to the market. 
  • Rainfall in parts of France and the United States have relieved dry weather concerns. 
  • Forecasts suggest the hot and dry weather over Europe will shift into south-west Russia. This could alleviate drought concerns in Europe. 
  • The USDA reported that global wheat stocks will increase to 261.3 million mega tonnes. This increase was driven by production increases in Russia and Argentina. 
  • Large global stockpiles and carry-out crop continue to put pressure on prices.  


Global Trade News
  • Corn could become a major driver of global wheat and barley prices in the next months as the large corn crop will compete with wheat and barley on the domestic feed market. 
  • Crop conditions in the United States was 4% lower for the spring wheat, at 41% good-to-excellent and 1% lower for the winter wheat, at 49% good-to-excellent.
  • Huge stockpiles of wheat remain globally, but as large amount of these stockpiles are in China and India some concerns regarding the accuracy of these figures have been noticed. 
  • The market is currently trading largely around weather stories until more fundamental information is known. 



Local News

  • Wheat prices strengthen again this week as the lack of grower’s selling crop is decreasing supply in the market. 
  • In Western Australia autumn rainfall tracked well below average. Forecasts suggest some patchy rainfall might fall during the next week, which could bring up to 25 millimetres of rain. 
  • The forecasts are still not predicting any rain in South Australia or on the east coast.
  • Drought concerns and the lack of grower’s selling crop continues to drive prices. The increased demand in the export market has exacerbate the prices. 
  • The barley supply is running increasingly thin. 
  • Australian wheat supply estimates suggest there is plenty of wheat available in most regions. The price increase is driven by the lack of selling. 
  • In northern NSW and QLD wheat and barley are in relatively tight supply, with lower feed grades largely sold. 
  • Selling is expected to increase with the start of the next financial year. The amount of rainfall in the next couple of weeks will be crucial for prices. 




23-June-2017 Grain
Wheat Barley Maize Sorghum
Atherton Tableland Price Range $320 $330 $430 $440 $365 $375 $305 $315
  Change $20 $15 $55 Steady
Darling Downs Price Range $290 $300 $280 $290 $295 $305 $280 $290
  Change $15 $15 $55 $10
North Coast of NSW  Price Range $295 $305 $290 $300 $310 $320 $295 $305
  Change $20 $15 $55 $10
Central West NSW Price Range $240 $250 $205 $215 $270 $280 $220 $230
  Change $20 $10 $20 $10
    Wheat Barley Maize Canola meal
Bega Valley Price Range $285 $295 $255 $265 $320 $330 $410 $420
  Change $15 $10 -$5 Steady
Goulburn / Murray Valley Price Range $245 $255 $220 $230 $260 $270 $380 $390
  Change $20 $15 -$5 Steady
Gippsland  Price Range $290 $300 $265 $275 $310 $320 $390 $400
  Change $20 $20 -$5 Steady
South West Victoria  Price Range $255 $265 $230 $240 $320 $330 $400 $410
  Change $20 $20 -$5 Steady
South East South Australia          Price Range $240 $250 $215 $225 $340 $350 $425 $435
  Change $20 $15 -$5 Steady
Central Districts of SA  Price Range $250 $260 $220 $230 $310 $320 $435 $445
  Change $15 $10 -$5 Steady
    Wheat Barley Triticale Oats
South West of WA  Price Range $295 $305 $255 $265 $340 $350 $200 $210
  Change $20 $5 $75 -$90
    Wheat Barley Maize Canola meal
Tasmania Price Range $320 $330 $300 $310 $340 $350 $430 $440
  Change $20 $15 -$5 Steady



Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.  Change in price is the change since the previous report.

Change in price is the change since the last report. Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. Whilst all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report, to the fullest extent permitted by Australian law Dairy Australia disclaims all liability for any inadvertent errors and for any losses or damages stemming from reliance upon its content. Dairy Australia recommends that all persons seek independent advice and, where appropriate, advice from a qualified adviser, before making any decisions about changes to business strategy.