Grain forms a large component of dairy farmers’ costs, particularly as the unprecedented dry weather has seen farmers increasingly look to supplement their pasture.

In northern Victoria and the Riverina, farmers are using grain for 50 per cent or more of their herds’ diet because limited water rights are placing them under growing pressure.

“Any purchasing decisions need to be based on credible and timely information. Farmers will be monitoring the grain situation carefully over the next few weeks as they decide how to best position themselves for the season ahead,” Dairy Australia market analyst Jo Bills said.

Without significant rains before the end of September, the crop will ‘slip back quickly,’ Australian Crop Forecasters’ grains expert Ron Storey said.

“However there’s still a possibility of ample supplies of grain for the dairy industry, we just need good rain. We are a long way from the disasters of 2002 and 2006,” Mr Storey said.

Mr Storey said the current estimates for the Victorian winter crops of wheat, barley, oats, triticale and field peas total around 5 million tonnes.

“This is much higher compared with that produced in the drought years of 2002 and 2006 at 1.7 and 1.5 million tonnes respectively,” Mr Storey said.

He said prices would remain volatile and have further upside risk until crops are secured in about mid-October.

“Grain users have few short-term options but to buy hand to mouth if they have not already bought grain forward.

“This tight supply situation will prevail until the Victorian harvest begins in mid-November to December,” he added.

The northern Mallee (Ouyen and west) is fairing better than the southern Mallee around Birchip. The Wimmera is holding on but needs rain and in the western district and south-east of South Australia crops are going ‘quite well,’ Mr Storey said.

“From a demand perspective, Goulburn Valley is expected to be tight with strong dairy demand and the Riverina crops will be in strong local demand for pigs, dairy and feedlots,” he said.

Ms Bills said the latest Hay and Grain Report is available from the Dairy Australia website.

For more information contact Sid Pickering on 03 9694 3894 or 0418 175 611 or This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it