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Read about the national and international grain market and how grain contributes to farm inputs and costs.

International and national summary

National background comments: report for the week ending 22th September, 2017

The next update will be on Friday 6th October, 2017. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.

Driving Prices Up

  • USDA Agricultural Report estimates Australian crop to reach 23 million tonnes, while local analysts suggest 20 million tonnes. This discrepancy could create a global price rally if realised. Put in perspective the Australian crop reached 33 million tonnes last year and the five year average is 26 million tonnes.
  • With the exception of Russian and Kazakhstan, all major wheat exporters decreased production this season.
  • Despite the large Russian wheat crop this season some government policies concerning railroad subsidies, are creating logistical issues and reducing market access.
  • Global crop quality continue to cause concerns due to difficult growing conditions.
  • Ongoing weather issues in Canada continue to impact yield expectations and raise concerns.

Driving Prices Down

  • The large global corn stock combined with low probability of a significant increase in demand, can act to keep grain prices down.
  • The French wheat crop is estimated to grow 2.3% this season, up to 37.9 million tonnes, the third largest crop recorded.
  • The large Russian crop combined with relatively stable conditions around the world is adding downward pressure on the market.

Global Trade News

  • Russian cash prices firmed slightly, despite a weak Ruble and record crop.
  • In the past months mindsets changed as the market moves from extreme highs to getting towards lows similar to last year. Currently trading is relatively flat but some upside risk exist given that low Australian crop estimates have not been priced in.

Local News

  • Rainfall and frost continue to impact the Australian market. Weather forecast suggest some rain will fall in Western Australia next week.
  • The extent of the frost damage on the east coast is yet to be determined but as temperatures rises effects become increasingly clear.
  • As temperatures begin to heat up (particularly in northern regions), estimates for Australian wheat crop, with no further moisture, suggest the crop will reach 20 million tonnes.
  • The wheat and barley market strengthened and prices increased as yield concerns grow.
  • The global barley price is expected to increase following a new Saudi tender this week.
  • Northern markets continue to strengthen following trade news suggesting smaller crops in New South Wales and Queensland.
  • Dry conditions in northern NSW and QLD are driving grain prices and increasing demand as beef cattle move into feedlots.
  • The harvest outlook for the wheat crops in southern regions is increasingly positive with some suggesting the production could be close to last year's levels.
22-September-2017 Grain
Wheat Barley Maize Sorghum
Atherton Tableland Price Range $360 $370 $480 $490 $405 $415 $315 $325
Change Steady $5 $10 Steady
Darling Downs Price Range $345 $355 $330 $340 $345 $355 $315 $325
Change $15 $5 $10 Steady
North Coast of NSW Price Range $335 $345 $325 $335 $350 $360 $300 $310
Change $10 $15 $10 $10
Central West NSW Price Range $280 $290 $245 $255 $290 $300 $260 $270
Change $10 Steady $10 Steady
Wheat Barley Maize Canola meal
Bega Valley Price Range $330 $340 $295 $305 $335 $345 $420 $430
Change $10 Steady $10 Steady
Goulburn / Murray Valley Price Range $260 $270 $240 $250 $275 $285 $390 $400
Change $15 $5 $10 Steady
Gippsland Price Range $300 $310 $280 $290 $325 $335 $410 $420
Change $15 $5 $10 Steady
South West Victoria Price Range $265 $275 $245 $255 $335 $345 $420 $430
Change $15 $5 $10 Steady
South East South Australia Price Range $255 $265 $230 $240 $355 $365 $445 $455
Change $15 $5 $10 Steady
Central Districts of SA Price Range $240 $250 $225 $235 $340 $350 $450 $460
Change $5 $5 $10 Steady
Wheat Barley Triticale Oats
South West of WA Price Range $280 $290 $260 $270 $295 $305 $170 $180
Change Steady Steady -$5 Steady
Wheat Barley Maize Canola meal
Tasmania Price Range $325 $335 $310 $320 $355 $365 $450 $460
Change $15 $5 $10 $10



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