The lack of statewide information on climate change impacts is a barrier to the dairy industry's efforts to plan for the future. By filling gaps in our knowledge about the impacts of climate change on the state's dairy industry, we hope to provide evidence that informs decision making and supports a more robust and resilient industry that is adapted to the changing climate.
Through the Storm and Flood Recovery Program funding, the NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Dairy teams are examining the potential impacts of climate change on dairy cows and the dairy pastures that underpin the feedbase for the industry. This work also leverages previous DPIRD climate vulnerability assessments which have examined the impacts of climate change on a wide range of other broadacre cropping industries that are important supplementary feed sources, as well as biosecurity risks that impact dairy cows.
Combined with the new dairy assessments, this project will enable the identification of future climate vulnerabilities that may require adaptation strategies, as well as those where climate change might bring new opportunities and relief from existing challenges.
By modelling how climate suitability will change for dairy cows and pastures across NSW, we can better understand how climate change will likely affect the industry by 2050.
Heat Stress: A changing climate is already impacting dairy cows in NSW
The historical climate suitability indicates that certain regions are already experiencing the impacts of heat stress. Heat stress is a problem now for the north coast and inland regions, where climate suitability is reduced during the summer to moderate/low due to high temperatures and humidity.
Heat stress is a significant concern for the dairy industry as it directly affects dairy cows' reproduction, growth and lactation. If heat stress increases in the future, particularly for these regions already impacted, this will present challenges for the dairy industry that are important to address.
Upcoming: future climate impacts on the NSW dairy industry
Future projection assessments are currently being undertaken to understand how heat stress and other climate factors will impact dairy cows and pastures under future climate change. The findings will be reported alongside recommendations for adaptation needs, and research and development priorities that the industry and government can use to guide future investment and enhance the resilience of the dairy sector.
The team has finalised the assessment for a series of broadacre crops and biosecurity risks, some impacting dairy production. All these assessments can be found in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Summary Report or on the website.
The reports will be available on our website in the coming months. We would welcome the opportunity to share the findings with you and discuss the next phase of work to support your industry in adapting to climate changes in NSW.
For detailed information on the methodology and data used in this project, please see the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Report.
An accompanying report on NSW Drought in a Changing Climate provides a comprehensive understanding of how drought frequency and duration will change as a result of climate change.
For more information, please get in touch with vulnerability.assessment@dpi.nsw.gov.au
This activity is made possible through the generous support of the Australian and NSW Governments’ Storm and Flood Industry Recovery Program
