Grain Report

Dairy Australia generates a grain report to help farmers make more informed decisions when buying grain. The grain report is updated 40 times per year and provides an independent and timely assessment of grain markets in each dairy region.

Grain prices by location

Select a location to view the grain price:

International and national summary

National background comments: report for the week ending 9 October 2020.

The next update will be on Friday 16 October 2020. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.

Driving Prices Up

• World wheat prices have rallied due to lower US wheat stocks for 2020/21, diminishing production prospects in Argentina and dry conditions impacting winter wheat plantings in Europe and Russia.
• Global barley prices have increased, supported by strength in other grain markets.
• The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will be released on October 9 (US time) with the expectation that the United States and South American grain production will be revised downwards. If the production cuts are greater than the market anticipates, this is likely to see grain futures increase.
• The canola harvest is wrapping up in Canada and selling has slowed, which is pushing prices higher. Spill over support from strong Chicago soybean futures is also underpinning canola futures.

Driving Prices Down

• Favourable harvest conditions in the United States is progressing the corn and soybean harvest, with harvest selling keeping prices from rallying more sharply.
• If the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are larger for global ending stocks, this will keep pressure on world cereal and oilseed prices.
• The lack of US export sale announcements to China, during the mid-Autumn festival holiday, has added some balance to future prices.

Global Trade News

• Tunisia’s state grain buyer (ODC) purchased 92,000mt of milling wheat on October 5 at an average price of $US264/t CFR, this is $US23/tonne more expensive than their previous tender. There is growing concern that domestic instability due to COVID-19 restrictions may impact imports, as discontent workers strike at ports.
• China is the world’s largest soybean importer, and recent buying sprees of US and Brazil soybeans indicates China is stockpiling soybeans, most likely filling the feed deficit left by recent typhoons that wiped out some domestic grain production. China continued to be a big soybean buyer in September, with exports to China accounting for 78% of Brazil’s soybean exports that month.
• Japan has released a tender for 118,000mt of milling wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US. The USDA predicts that Japan will purchase around 5.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2020/21.

Local News

• Winter crops continue to progress across Australia, and the harvest has commenced with early deliveries being received in Queensland, northern New South Wales and South Australia.
• Weather conditions have remained warm and dry over much of Queensland, while South Australia and Victoria were the only states to receive significant amounts of rainfall in the past week.
• A strong global cash market has seen new wheat and barley crop prices firm, however expectations of a large Australian crop are helping to keep domestic prices in check, to an extent.
• Canola prices have generally increased in comparison to last week with prices on the higher end of the forecast price range. Increased amount of selling is expected at harvest.

Price change in table below reflects moves since previous report (2 October 2020)

All Location Grain Prices