Grain Report

Dairy Australia generates a grain report to help farmers make more informed decisions when buying grain. The grain report is updated 40 times per year and provides an independent and timely assessment of grain markets in each dairy region.

Grain prices by location

Select a location to view the grain price:

International and national summary

National background comments: report for the week ending 16 October 2020.

The next update will be on Friday 30 October 2020. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.

Driving Prices Up

• Last week the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released. Following the release soybean markets gained the most support, however, some of this price strength spilled over into wheat and corn markets.
• US soybean end stocks were down 37% month-on-month, driven by slightly lower production in the US and increases in domestic and export demand.
• In the US, winter wheat planting continues to progress at an above average pace, however, more rainfall is needed to help crops establish before they go into winter dormancy.
• Russia and other Black Sea countries have had a similarly dry start to their winter wheat planting season. However, better weather is expected by the end of the month.

Driving Prices Down

• In the US, the harvest of spring corn and soybean crops continues to make solid progress. However, harvest has been unable to arrest the upward price momentum seen in following the latest WASDE report.
• With this month’s WASDE report showing (yet another) small increase in world wheat stocks and production, a higher probability of a crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere (beyond what is already priced in) is likely needed for the market to rally significantly higher.

Global Trade News

• Reserves of corn in China are believed to be getting low enough for corn future prices to reach new highs.
• This has prompted speculation that China may look to raise their current import quota for corn.
• With grain and feed markets already taking a bullish view on Chinese demand for US agricultural goods, any such move would be expected to bring further support to these markets.
• Chinese corn imports for the first eight months of this year are already reportedly up to 50% higher than last year, with most of this stock coming from the US and Ukraine.

Local News

• The harvest has started in northern regions, with dry weather in Queensland and Western Australia in particular having accelerated crop maturity.
• A La Nina has been declared until at least January 2021, which is raising concerns about a wet harvest. This could see large areas of crop downgraded due to quality issues such as sprouted grains.
• Strength in offshore markets has seen new crop prices firm this week. New harvest selling in coming months may put some pressure on prices.
• Barley inclusion in domestic feed rations will continue to be high given the large price spread to wheat.

Price change in table below reflects moves since previous report (9 October 2020)

All Location Grain Prices