All about the national and international grain market and how grain contributes to farm inputs and costs.
International and national summary
National background comments: report for the week ending 14th December, 2018.
The next update will be on Friday 21th December, 2018. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.
Driving Prices Up
Recently, China has reportedly purchased 500 thousand tonnes of US soybeans, this led to support for CBOT soybean markets and spill over support for CBOT corn and wheat, please refer to “Global Trade News” for more details.
- Further positive developments in the US/China trade rhetoric will lend to further support for CBOT soybeans, the recent 90-day trade truce is winding down quickly. Thus, the recent announcements have provided a new level of optimism and this may lead to support in the coming months.
- There will be some underlying support in CBOT wheat markets as there continues to be a level of optimism that US wheat exports will be more competitive in the new year, as Russian and Black Sea countries exportable surplus decreases.
Driving Prices Down
The December USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates report was released on Tuesday night, whilst relatively uneventful did create some softness offshore markets. This was due to world end stocks moving 0.5% higher and global corn end stocks moving 2.8% higher.
Global Trade News
The US have recently announced that a Chinese state-owned or private company has bought 500 thousand tonnes of US soybeans. This is the first report that there have been beans leave US shores directly to China.
- This followed the announcement earlier in the week that China has lowered their import tariff on US automobiles (from 40% to 15%), which was viewed as a sign that trade tensions between these two countries could be easing.
- Prospects of wheat from the US and other exporters becoming more competitive in the coming year have continued to gain further traction, due to Iraq purchasing 50 thousand tonnes of US wheat.
- A break in wet weather for the past week allowed growers in Victoria and South Australia to get a good run at harvest, however this was short lived, and rainfall forecast for all of Victoria, southern NSW, South Australia and some parts of southern WA have led to further harvest delays.
- These delays in combination with offshore market support will potentially lead to firmer domestic prices.
- Nationally, harvest now over two thirds completed, rainfall forecast will slow this progress, grower selling will still be a determinant of what they can get off, but we expect this to ramp up when the weather clears up.
Price change in table below reflects moves since previous report (7th December 2018)