All about the national and international grain market and how grain contributes to farm inputs and costs.
International and national summary
National background comments: report for the week ending 7th August, 2020.
The next update will be on Friday 14th August, 2020. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.
Driving Prices Up
Technical buying ahead of the month end saw CBOT markets finish last week on a slightly firmer tone.
- This rounded out what was a quiet week for CBOT wheat futures, with traded volumes the lowest since the December Christmas break.
- As China continues to draw down on their domestic inventory of corn, corn prices in China continue to firm. However, this has not flowed through to corn and other CBOT markets, at least for now.
Driving Prices Down
Updated estimates of Russian wheat production saw CBOT wheat futures move sharply lower this week, with this pressure spilling into neighbouring corn and soybean markets.
- Although the size of this increase (1-2%) was not large, further confirmation of the supplies this low-cost exporter might be able to offer this coming year drove offshore wheat prices lower.
- In the Ukraine, the harvest of winter wheat continues to progress well, with over three quarters now done.
- With most of Australia's grain growing regions expecting rain by the end of this weekend (09/08), increased optimism around production here also helped keep offshore markets lower.
- This week's USDA crop progress data showed that a very small amount of US corn and soybean crops are in a poor or very poor condition, with multiple price forecasts now predicting record US corn yields.
- Early estimates have Brazil producing a record soybean crop in 2021.
Global Trade News
The month of July was generally seen as positive by CBOT markets in terms of the crucial agriculture trade between the US and China. However, a ramp up in pace is still required for China to meet their Phase One Trade Deal Requirements.
- This week saw Russian and Ukrainian wheat again win business in the GASC (Egyptian) wheat tender, at prices a touch below what was seen at the end of August.
- South Korea looked to take advantage of recent weakness in CBOT corn futures this week, picking up 2 cargoes of corn.
- Offshore weakness has, by and large, found its way into local markets over the past week, with this also seeing sellers step out of the market.
- Rainfall totals for the month of July were underwhelming for many of Australia's grain growing areas.
- In most grain growing regions outside of central/northern NSW, further rainfall in the next couple of weeks is needed to ensure that current estimates of average production are met.
Price change in table below reflects moves since previous report (31st July, 2020)